Next week’s FOMC is not just “another 25 bp decision” for crypto. Looking at the last two years of meetings, BTC has reacted less to whether the Fed cut and more to how big the policy surprise was, especially via the 2-year yield, in the D-3 to D+3 window.
Event window and what actually moves BTC
If you take each FOMC and look at BTC performance from D-3 to D+3, three regimes stand out:
- Hawkish surprise (2y yield up more than expected)
- Dovish surprise (2y yield down more than expected)
- In-line outcome (2y roughly where the market priced it pre-meeting)
The sign and size of the yield surprise explain far more of BTC’s move than the simple “hike / cut / hold” label.
Hawkish surprise pattern
When the Fed delivers tighter-than-expected policy or signals a slower cut path:
- BTC tends to show an immediate negative move on D0
- The D+1 to D+3 window often shows additional negative drift as macro funds rebalance risk
- The move is usually correlated with broader risk assets, not crypto-specific flows
In other words, FOMC “hawkish surprises” still trade like a macro risk-off shock.
Dovish surprise pattern
When the Fed comes in more dovish than priced (faster cut path, lower end-2026 dots, more emphasis on easing):
- BTC often posts positive D0 moves
- The D+1 to D+3 period shows a tendency toward positive drift if the market is already in a risk-on regime
- The effect is stronger when BTC is in a broader uptrend and positioning is not excessively long
The market rewards relaxation of the “liquidity headwind,” but only if there is room to add risk.
In-line outcome
For meetings where the decision and guidance are broadly in line with futures pricing:
- D-3 to D+3 cumulative BTC returns are typically contained within a moderate band Intraday ranges expand on D0, but the net move over the window is often small relative to the pre-meeting trend
- In these cases, local tops and bottoms tend to be set before or after the event, rather than on the announcement itself
Direction comes from the existing trend; the FOMC mainly injects volatility.
In 2024, the key pattern was:
- BTC rallied into the first cut expectations as markets priced a full easing cycle Around the actual cut decisions, D-3 to D+3 performance was modest unless the dot plot or press conference surprised
- The big legs were driven by shifts in the expected path, not the mechanical move on the day
“Buy the easing cycle expectation, trade the FOMC day only when there is a surprise” has described this period better than “buy every cut.”
In 2025 that pattern became more pronounced:
- In July, after the Fed signaled the possibility of a continued rate-cut cycle into next year, Bitcoin climbed to a new all-time high in the ~$120,000 range. Later cuts and the formal end of QT coincided more with consolidation and position reduction than with new vertical moves.
- By Q4, BTC’s reaction around D-3 to D+3 depended mainly on whether the meeting shifted the expected terminal rate and pace into 2026, not on the cut size itself.
For the next FOMC, the key questions for BTC are:
- Do the dots move the expected end-2026 rate meaningfully lower?
- Does the Fed validate a longer, smoother cut path vs a short “one-and-done” sequence?
- How do 2y and 5y yields move vs what was priced in 24 hours before the meeting?
From a crypto perspective, this meeting is a signal about the ceiling and floor of future dollar liquidity, not just a 25 bp decision.
Alts: delayed and amplified response
Historically:
- D0 to D+1: BTC and ETH carry most of the macro adjustment
- D+2 to D+7: if the macro signal is risk-on, beta spreads out into higher-risk sectors (L2s, infra, DeFi, memes, gaming), often with a lag
- If the signal is risk-off or ambiguous, that second-wave rotation into alts tends to be muted or absent
For positioning, this suggests treating FOMC as a BTC/ETH information event first, and an alt-beta event only if the macro signal is clearly supportive.
This Post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. There may be errors or inaccuracies, so please do your own research (DYOR) and let us know if you spot anything that looks incorrect.
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